OPENING REMARKS TESTIMONY BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE

        Philip A. Odeen

        Chairman, National Defense Panel

        January 28, 1998

        Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:
            Thank you for the opportunity to testify before your committee. I would like to open by introducing the members of the Panel.
            On behalf of the entire nine member National Defense Panel, let me say that we are honored to have been asked to serve on the Panel and also honored to be here today. The National Defense Panel was legislated and enacted to be independent, innovative and forward thinking. To many, its emphasis was to identify and think through the relevant questions, rather than to provide specific answers. Finally, we are deeply honored to have been asked to take on what we believe is one of the most important national security issues facing the United States – namely, how must our nation’s defenses and national security structure change to meet the challenges of the 21st century.
            I believe the desire of this Committee to create the Panel reflects a common concern that we are not yet on the right path to the future. The search for this path has at least three dimensions. First, it requires looking far into the future and trying to understand the conditions and types of challenges and challengers we will face. Second, it requires not so much determining specific solutions, but developing an approach to determine what will need to be changed and how. Finally, and most importantly, a path to the future requires taking action now. It requires making hard decisions about where to invest, where to divest and where to stay on the current course.
            The development of our Post Cold War strategic thinking has evolved over the last decade. Indeed, each of the internal studies and external reviews have identified key elements of what today is emerging as a new national security paradigm. However, we believed that it was essential for our Panel to address each of the three aspects I just mentioned – and to do so in a more thorough and open manner. We decided we had to look further into the future to the 2020 time frame. Next, we decided we had to develop a transformation strategy that would focus on starting the process of change now. Finally, we felt compelled to highlight the key decisions and decision making criteria that must be addressed. Implementing that strategy and making the actual decisions is, of course, the clear responsibility of the legislature and administration.
            In addition to relying on the independent nature of the Panel, let me also comment on the structure and approach we pursued. The Panel members have demonstrated expertise and experience across the defense, diplomatic, business and academic worlds. Moreover, the Panel augmented its own knowledge base by seeking a wide variety of perspectives from both inside and outside the US national security community and those of our international partners (as well as China and Russia). To the extent possible, these perspectives were incorporated into our nine months of study and deliberations. Let me tell you what we think we learned.
            First, the future we face in 2020 will be very different. A whole host of new challenges and opportunities are emerging. While we may find ourselves facing enemies on traditional battlegrounds, it is far more likely that we will face very different adversaries and that our conflicts will include locations in space, throughout our information networks, in highly urbanized areas, within the undeveloped and developing world and, perhaps even on our own soil. Our adversaries will include not just the armed forces of nations, but also international criminals and terrorist groups. Our challenges will expand, requiring us to deal with vast bodies of migrating peoples and the environment itself. These contingencies may occur in areas where we have no forces present and limited ability to move them there. We may even find that our actions to move troops to conflict locations is thwarted. As we deal with these challenges, we are likely to face weapons of mass destruction and attacks on the information systems upon which we have become dependent. The same advanced technologies we have incorporated into our war fighting, communications and support systems will be available to our adversaries. Finally, dealing with these challenges and conflicts will not depend upon just our own forces, but will also demand closer integration with diplomatic efforts, the assets of other nations and a whole host of non-governmental organizations who are already working hard to reverse miseries throughout the world. The economically and environmentally intertwined nature of today's world will cause the problems of one region to be felt world wide -- a factor that will tax our institutions, but which cannot be ignored. Mr. Chairman and Committee Members, this is the world the Panel believes we will face in the coming century.
            The Panel also discussed the many opportunities this new century will afford us. Nations currently developing both economically and institutionally can be nurtured to become responsible members of the world community. We must make use of the present time of peace to establish positive and cooperative relationships. Additionally, technologies in the electronics, space and information realm can be harnessed to provide us with both better knowledge and capabilities. But exploiting both these opportunities requires a commitment to act now as this period of relative peace continues.
            As the Panel carefully considered the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century, one thought became more and more clear -- we must change and we must begin the process of change now. No one can predict the future. No one can identify with sufficient clarity who will challenge the United States, or when, or where. Indeed, continued change and uncertainty are likely to remain with us for years to come. Now is not the time to develop detailed answers and specific plans. Instead, today should mark the beginning of a transformation process that has serious and committed experimentation as its foundation. The experimentation we seek must be rooted in joint efforts -- in fact, our notion of ‘jointness’ must move beyond the halls of the Defense Department and incorporate the many government agencies and departments which find themselves involved in the broader national security arena. A period of concerted experimentation will permit us to match new solutions and innovative approaches to future challenges as they evolve. It will allow us to match the capabilities we establish to the world of the 21st century, rather than to the conditions we are leaving behind us. Moreover, a commitment to experiment will ensure that the Department's vision of the future, which is basically sound, will be matched with near term and decisive action. Today that is not the case.
            At the heart of this transformation, therefore, are hard decisions. First, we must rethink how we assess and allocate risk. No one on the Panel would suggest that the conflicts which may arise in the near term are not without risk to the US. However, we believe that focusing our attention and resources on today's concerns will prevent us from being prepared to face very different ones in the future. Second, it is the strong belief of the Panel that resources currently used to maintain Cold War infrastructure and upgrades to current war fighting systems must be reconsidered. Those same resources can and should be used starting now to support the transformation upon which our future depends. The resources saved today can be used to establish the capabilities we will need in the 21st century. Finally, additional resources for defense are unlikely at best. Therefore, we must make the hard divestiture decisions today that will ensure our success tomorrow.
            To support both a long term transformation strategy and near term options, our report includes the considerations we believe must guide decision making. This template can help distinguish investments for the future from investments geared to the past. To be sure, our bias is to the future. We believe the risk of not changing in time is far more perilous than the risk posed by near term concerns.
            But the transformation strategy proposed by the Panel includes more than an experimentation philosophy and resource allocations within the Defense establishment. It extends beyond defense and to the very heart of our national security system. We cannot expect to meet a very different future with the same apparatus that moved us out of the Second World War and through the entire Cold War. Additional players must be incorporated, processes for integration must be revamped, and transnational considerations must be included. The economic aspects of national security must take on a prominence similar to that of defense during the Cold War. In the opinion of the Panel, it is time to reconsider, and possibly update, the National Security Act of 1947.
            In closing, let me reiterate the objectives this Panel set for itself during our first few meetings. We understood that we could not provide detailed answers for tomorrow – no one can. Instead, we focused on the key questions and a process for their resolution. We felt that our contribution would best be made if we could reinvigorate and extend a broad debate about national security in the 21st century. It is our hope that our work has achieved that goal. More importantly, it is our hope that as a nation we stand ready to conclude that debate by making the changes necessary to extend the successes and strong leadership of the United States well into the next century.
            Before I yield to the questions of the Committee, I’d like to thank the Secretary of Defense for his support of the Panel’s efforts throughout the last year. His assurance of access to him and his staff, as well as analysis done throughout the Department, allowed us to consider all perspectives. Our ongoing dialogue with Secretary Cohen also enriched the Panel’s effort and enhanced the relevance of our work. Let me also thank your Committee for giving us the opportunity to serve the nation. I hope we have made a real and lasting contribution.
         
         

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