Accession Number : ADA621618


Title :   The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996-2017


Descriptive Note : Research rept.


Corporate Author : RAND PROJECT AIR FORCE SANTA MONICA CA


Personal Author(s) : Heginbotham, Eric ; Nixon, Michael ; Morgan, Forrest E ; Heim, Jacob L ; Hagen, Jeff ; Li, Sheng ; Engstrom, Jeffrey ; Libicki, Martin C ; DeLuca, Paul ; Shlapak, David A


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA621618


Report Date : Jan 2015


Pagination or Media Count : 431


Abstract : Over the past two decades, China s People s Liberation Army has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap. Moreover, China enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible conflict scenarios, and geographical advantage would likely neutralize many U.S. military strengths. A sound understanding of regional military issues including forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power will be essential for establishing appropriate U.S. political and military policies in Asia. This RAND study analyzes the development of respective Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in ten categories of military operations across two scenarios, one centered on Taiwan and one on the Spratly Islands. The analysis is presented in ten scorecards that assess military capabilities as they have evolved over four snapshot years: 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. The results show that China is not close to catching up to the United States in terms of aggregate capabilities, but also that it does not need to catch up to challenge the United States on its immediate periphery. Furthermore, although China s ability to project power to more distant locations remains limited, its reach is growing, and in the future U.S. military dominance is likely to be challenged at greater distances from China s coast. To maintain robust defense and deterrence capabilities in an era of fiscal constraints, the United States will need to ensure that its own operational concepts, procurement, and diplomacy anticipate future developments in Chinese military capabilities.


Descriptors :   *CHINA , *MILITARY CAPABILITIES , *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN) , *MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES) , CYBERWARFARE , DEFENSE SYSTEMS , MILITARY FACILITIES , MILITARY HISTORY , MILITARY OPERATIONS , NAVAL VESSELS , NUCLEAR WARFARE , POWER , SCENARIOS , SPACE SYSTEMS , TAIWAN


Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Military Forces and Organizations
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE