Accession Number : ADA617603


Title :   Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations


Descriptive Note : Journal article


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH


Personal Author(s) : Yuan, Edwin C ; Alderson, David L ; Stromberg, Sean ; Carlson, Jean M


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA617603


Report Date : 17 Feb 2015


Pagination or Media Count : 26


Abstract : Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case.


Descriptors :   *ALLOCATIONS , *EPIDEMIOLOGY , *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES , *VACCINES , CLINICAL MEDICINE , COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION , COST EFFECTIVENESS , IMMUNIZATION , INFECTIOUS DISEASES , MEDICAL SERVICES , POLICIES , POPULATION , PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS , QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS , RESOURCE MANAGEMENT


Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Medicine and Medical Research
      Medical Facilities, Equipment and Supplies
      Operations Research


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE