Accession Number : ADA567874


Title :   Individualized Management of Fatigue and Cognitive Performance Impairment through Biomathematical Modeling


Descriptive Note : Conference paper


Corporate Author : ARMY MEDICAL RESEARCH AND MATERIEL COMMAND FORT DETRICK MD TELEMEDICINE AND ADVANCED TECH RESEARCH CENTER


Personal Author(s) : Rajaraman, Srinivasan ; Wesensten, Nancy J ; Balkin, Thomas J ; Reifman, Jaques


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a567874.pdf


Report Date : Oct 2009


Pagination or Media Count : 14


Abstract : In this work, we present a method for developing individualized biomathematical models for predicting cognitive performance impairment of individuals subjected to total sleep loss. The proposed method uses the two-process model of sleep regulation as the underlying parametric model, whose parameters are systematically customized for an individual by optimally combining the performance information obtained from the individual's performance measurements with a priori performance information using a Bayesian framework. As a result, the models incrementally account for an individual's uncertain initial state and unknown trait characteristics as each new performance measurement from the individual becomes available, yielding improved performance predictions. Additionally, the proposed method enables the analytical computation of statistically based measures of reliability of the model predictions in the form of prediction intervals. Results using data from subjects who participated in an 82-h total sleep loss laboratory study showed that the proposed method yielded individualized predictions that were up to 43% more accurate than group-average model predictions and better captured the circadian and homeostatic variations in the performance data.


Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION , *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN) , *SLEEP DEPRIVATION , CIRCADIAN RHYTHMS , COGNITION , HOMEOSTASIS , MATHEMATICAL MODELS


Subject Categories : Psychology
      Stress Physiology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE