Accession Number : ADA514033


Title :   Standard Port-Visit Cost Forecasting Model for U.S. Navy Husbanding Contracts


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Marquez, Michael A. ; Rayos, Richard M. ; Mercado, John I.


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA514033


Report Date : DEC 2009


Pagination or Media Count : 118


Abstract : Husbanding services are crucial elements of a port visit. In support of mission objectives, combatant commanding officers and sealift masters rely on contractors to act on the U.S. Navy's behalf in coordinating the delivery of supplies or performance of services. Through the years, the cost of port services around the world has increased in various magnitudes. However, the U.S. Navy's ability to track and analyze port-visit costs changes remains rudimentary. Current systems lack the functionality needed by the stakeholders to effectively and efficiently forecast port-visit costs. The researchers developed a Web-based modularized application that stores and displays invoices, generates reports, and more importantly, forecasts future port-visit costs using the standard port-visit cost forecasting model for husbanding contracts. The forecasting function of the application provides two predictive methods, namely confidence interval estimator and exponential smoothing. The analysis clearly shows that low requirement variability improves the reliability of the interval, while high frequency of port-visits increases the accuracy of the exponential smoothing results. The capabilities of the application provide stakeholders with a valuable tool to analyze port-visit requirements and costs trends.


Descriptors :   *NAVAL PERSONNEL , *FAMILY MEMBERS , *NAVAL BUDGETS , HIGH FREQUENCY , DELIVERY , SKILLS , PREDICTIONS , FORECASTING , ACCURACY , ESTIMATES , VARIATIONS , COSTS , RELIABILITY , MARINE TRANSPORTATION , PATTERNS , SUPPLIES , MILITARY COMMANDERS , CONFIDENCE LIMITS , METHODOLOGY , INTERVALS , FUNCTIONS , REQUIREMENTS


Subject Categories : ECONOMICS AND COST ANALYSIS
      MILITARY FORCES AND ORGANIZATIONS


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE