Accession Number : ADA284697


Title :   Counter-Insurgency in Cuba: Why Did Batista Fail


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis 2 Aug 1993-3 Jun 1994


Corporate Author : ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS


Personal Author(s) : Blanco, Ricardo J.


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA284697


Report Date : 03 JUN 1994


Pagination or Media Count : 131


Abstract : This thesis analyzes the counterinsurgency efforts of the second Batista regime of Cuba, 1952-1958, using the Sword Model, developed by Max G. Manwaring and John T. Fishel. The Sword Model is a paradigm developed to predict the probability of success of insurgencies by evaluating seven major criteria which are referred to as dimensions. The thesis concludes that all seven dimensions were detrimental to the longevity of the Batista regime. The major contributors to Batista's failure were his lack of legitimacy and poor unity of effort within the government as well as between Cuba and the major intervening power, the United States. Weak democratic traditions in Cuban society and a biased international news media exacerbated the crisis. Based on the research conducted, it is believed that the Sword Model, would have accurately predicted the outcome of the second Batista regime were it available during the 1950's. The Sword Model, is therefore a viable tool in evaluating insurgencies


Descriptors :   *PREDICTIONS , *MODELS , *COUNTERINSURGENCY , *INSURGENCY , FOREIGN POLICY , UNITED STATES , PROBABILITY , FAILURE , GEOPOLITICS , HISTORY , POWER , LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT , POLITICAL REVOLUTION , COMMUNISM , MEDIA , CUBA , THESES , FORECASTING , TOOLS , INTERNATIONAL POLITICS , SOCIETIES


Subject Categories : ADMINISTRATION AND MANAGEMENT
      GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
      HUMANITIES AND HISTORY
      GEOGRAPHY
      TEST FACILITIES, EQUIPMENT AND METEORS
      UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE