Accession Number : ADA238873


Title :   The Modeling of Employment Decisions for Peacetime Contingency Operations


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,


Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING


Personal Author(s) : Wilmer, Michael C.


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA238873


Report Date : MAR 1991


Pagination or Media Count : 103


Abstract : This research provided the conceptualization of a model that can be used to aid the operations planner in choosing employment strategies for peacetime contingency operations. The model uses object-oriented design and is constructed in two levels. The top layer of the model is a decision analytic model which provides a framework within which to structure the employment decision. It enables the user to quantify the probabilities of random events and the preferences of the commander and determine how these factors influence the decision. A Game Theory model is used to determine the probabilities with which the Red commander will adopt a particular strategy. The lower level of the model is an object-oriented adaptation of SOTACA which incorporates PANTHER's methodology for evaluating popular support. This portion of the model allows the user to evaluate the results of the strategy chosen in the top layer in a more detailed combat model. This paper also identifies further research that must be performed in the modeling of non-combat activities that are an integral part of low-intensity conflicts.


Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS , WARFARE , DECISION MAKING , STRATEGY , PEACETIME , GAME THEORY , MODELS , LAYERS , PROBABILITY , LOW LEVEL , ADAPTATION , MILITARY OPERATIONS , EMPLOYMENT


Subject Categories : MILITARY OPERATIONS, STRATEGY AND TACTICS


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE