Accession Number : ADA095892


Title :   Decision Support for Attack Submarine Commanders.


Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,


Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC FALLS CHURCH VA


Personal Author(s) : Cohen,Marvin S ; Brown,Rex V


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA095892


Report Date : Oct 1980


Pagination or Media Count : 108


Abstract : In research funded by ONR, DSC has examined decisions at the command and control level for nuclear-powered attack class submarines. Analysis of decision requirements and current practice within various scenarios has led to consideration of three broad classes of aids: inference aids, alerting aids, and prompting aids. One context has been singled out for detailed attention--passive target ranging with the intent to engage an enemy. The CO currently assesses target ranging by selecting informally from several competing estimates of 'solutions,' informally assessing their probable accuracy, and then informally deciding when to fire a torpedo. An attack may be unnecessarily delayed because he is unable to exploit all the available information in a timely manner: Three kinds of aids have been developed on a conceptual level for this situation: for each solution technique, an adjusted range assessment is provided together with an estimate of its accuracy; the results of the separate passive ranging techniques are pooled to produce a single probabilistic range assessment; and the resultant range assessment is used to alert the CO to critical dangers or opportunities; e.g., when the probability that the target is within weapon range exceeds a preset threshold. The proposed aids are 'personalist' in the sense that they systematically integrate both objective and subjective sources of information. The feasibility of objective estimation of parameters for these aids has been demonstrated by reference to RANGEX data. (Author)


Descriptors :   *DECISION MAKING , *TACTICAL ANALYSIS , *MILITARY COMMANDERS , MISSION PROFILES , STATISTICAL INFERENCE , COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS , TARGETING , BAYES THEOREM , JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY) , ATTACK SUBMARINES , CUEING , WARNING SYSTEMS , NUCLEAR POWERED SUBMARINES


Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Human Factors Engineering & Man Machine System


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE