Accession Number : AD1036885


Title :   Bomber Deterrence Missions: Criteria To Evaluate Mission Effectiveness


Descriptive Note : Technical Report


Corporate Author : AIR WAR COLL MAXWELL AFB AL MAXWELL AFB United States


Personal Author(s) : Cochran,Bradley L


Full Text : http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1036885.pdf


Report Date : 16 Feb 2016


Pagination or Media Count : 25


Abstract : Richard Lebow, in an article he wrote called Conventional or Nuclear Deterrence: Are the Lessons Transferable, reviewed a series of wars and crisis from 1898 to 1987. He concluded the major factor in determining the success of deterrence was not the size of the military or its capacity to fight. Instead, it was the degree to which the challenger felt driven to attack and a belief in the success of that attack.1 In order for deterrence to be successful, a defender must convince the aggressor not only will it be unsuccessful in its attack, but also the potential cost associated with its aggression far outweighs the chance it will succeed. Patrick Morgan's immediate deterrence example is the most effective way to persuade the enemy into believing an attack will be unsuccessful. A review of two case studies, North Korea in 2013 and Russia's aggression into Ukraine in 2014, reveals immediate deterrence is the most effective when six criteria are used. These include:1) A punctuating event occurs, leading to a requirement to display deterrence.2) A specific defender (the deterrer) and aggressor can be identified.3) An established security connection exists with the defender and that connection has a defined security response towards aggression.4) A sufficient amount of force is used in the deterrence effort.5) The defender or the sum of the defender and its allies is militarily stronger than the aggressor.6) The greater the effort put forth to deter action, the more effective the deterrent.US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) should use these six criteria when planning for and the effectiveness of future bomber deterrence missions.


Descriptors :   Deterrence , international relations , united states strategic command , case studies , governments , air force , warfare , international security , military operations , political science , security , combat readiness


Subject Categories : Bombers
      Nuclear Warfare
      Government and Political Science


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE